The bull market for Bitcoin is unlikely to return before 2025, according to Canaccord Genuity. After three consecutive years of positive returns, Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency prices have plummeted in 2022. The world’s largest digital asset is down about 65% since the beginning of the year (YTD) as central banks have had to respond aggressively to curb inflation, which has hurt high-growth assets like Bitcoin.
Additionally, specific negative catalysts for cryptocurrencies – the collapse of FTX – have further eroded investor confidence in cryptocurrencies, a sentiment that is likely to weigh on prices in 2023 as well.
“Outlooks for 2023 unfortunately remain more on the side of moderation,” Canaccord Genuity analysts wrote in a note on digital assets.
As Canaccord sees “a fairly high probability of recession in 2023,” the analysts believe the cryptocurrency market will struggle to recover and return to 2021 levels in the short term. They also expect correlations between cryptocurrency and stock prices to “return to high levels.”
“In previous similar cycles, the stock market never hit its lowest level before the beginning of a recession, and with a generally weak Q4 earnings season expected in January and February across our fundamental coverage of tech names, outlooks for stocks early in 2023 look bleak,” they added.
On a more positive note, the analysts note that Bitcoin appears to have found some support near $16,000, while the Ethereum platform’s economy “has never been stronger.”
“In the background, developers are frantically working on well-funded projects without the distractions of a bull market,” they added.
Net-net, while the analysts remain positive on crypto and Bitcoin in the long term, they acknowledge that “it could easily take ~2 years before the return of a potential bull market.”
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